TRACK RECORD
Every forecast we have made, including the wrong ones
Public and permanent. One page per resolved forecast. This is the reason to believe anything else on this site.
Forecasts resolved
0
Called correctly
0%
We got wrong
0
Still being watched
8
Records removed, ever
0
Does a stated confidence mean what it says?
Forecasts grouped by the probability we published, against how often they actually resolved. Close to equal is calibrated. Claimed above observed means we are overconfident, and the fix is recalibration, not rewording.
| Published band | Forecasts | We claimed | We achieved | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing has resolved yet. The curve appears once forecasts reach their evaluation date. | ||||
| Topic | Called on | Forecast | Evaluated | Outcome |
|---|
Accuracy is measured against registration volume above a rolling baseline, with the threshold declared when the forecast is made and evaluated automatically at the end of the stated window. No one can move a marginal call into the hit column.